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Football Prediction Models

Leakage-safe match-prediction pipelines with CatBoost — SHAP feature selection, calibration and walk-forward validation.

PythonCatBoostscikit-learnpandaspytest

Built leakage-safe match-prediction pipelines with CatBoost, SHAP-based feature selection, probability calibration and walk-forward validation. As a sanity check on the edge, I backtested a Serie A draw-gap strategy that returned >30% ROI over the last eight seasons.

  • Leakage-safe pipelines: SHAP selection, calibration, walk-forward validation
  • >30% ROI backtest on a Serie A draw-gap strategy (8 seasons)