Football Prediction Models
Beating closing bookmaker odds, leakage-safe
PythonCatBoostscikit-learnSHAPpandaspytest
Match-prediction pipelines with CatBoost, SHAP-based feature selection, probability calibration and walk-forward validation. As a sanity check on the edge, a Serie A draw-gap strategy was backtested against closing odds over eight seasons.
- >30 % ROI backtest over 8 seasons against closing bookmaker odds
- Leakage-safe: walk-forward validation, SHAP selection, calibration so the edge holds out of sample